With Fall of Bashar al-Assad, India Loses a Friend

[ad_1] The autumn of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has evoked deep concern in India, prompting New Delhi to reply cautiously to the quickly altering occasions within the area.

In its first assertion after Assad’s ouster, India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs (MEA) known as on “all events to work in the direction of preserving the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria” and for a “peaceable and inclusive Syrian-led political course of respecting the pursuits and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society.”

New Delhi avoided taking sides within the unfolding scenario in Syria.

India’s fast concern is the protection of its nationals within the nation. Based on the MEA, there are round 90 Indians in Syria. “We're intently following the scenario,” MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated, including that the Indian “mission stays in shut contact with our nationals for his or her security and safety.”

A lot uncertainty looms over Syria. Whereas the Assad regime has fallen and the previous Syrian president is reported to have obtained sanctuary in Russia, who or what is going to succeed him isn't clear. A motley group of Islamist teams led by the al-Qaida-affiliated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is anticipated to type the following authorities in Damascus. The political transition will not be a easy or peaceable course of, as an influence battle inside the HTS can't be dominated out.

Furthermore, regional and world powers, together with Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, and america, which have been backing totally different armed militias within the Syrian civil battle over the previous decade, could be anticipated to stoke violence as they search to put in their protégés within the sizzling seat in Damascus. This might see violent gun battles get away on Syrian streets within the coming weeks and months.

Ought to violent unrest persist, India will contemplate evacuating its nationals from Syria. However this shouldn't be a serious problem for New Delhi because it has huge expertise in evacuating a whole bunch of 1000's of Indians from different battle zones.

India’s fundamental concern with the autumn of Assad is that it has misplaced a good friend within the Muslim world.

In contrast to different Islamic nations which have backed Pakistan on the Kashmir query, Syria has been steadfast in its assist of India, asserting that India has a proper to resolve the Kashmir difficulty in “any method” and “with out exterior help.” In 2017 Assad expressed solidarity with India in its combat in opposition to terrorism. “In India, terrorism is used for political functions, and the scenario is not any totally different in Syria,” Assad advised a Indian tv channel in 2017.

When the remainder of the Muslim world strongly castigated India’s choice to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy by abrogating Article 370 in 2019, Syria dismissed it as India’s “inner matter.” “Each authorities has the proper to do no matter it likes on its land to guard its folks. We're all the time with India on any motion,” Riad Abbas, Syria’s ambassador to India on the time, stated.

India might be apprehensive concerning the place that the post-Assad dispensation will tackle Kashmir.

Based on Kabir Taneja, creator of “The ISIS Peril: The World’s Most Feared Terror Group and Its Shadow on South Asia,” “One factor that works for India proper now's that even non-state militant actors normally don’t have issues with India, and see it as impartial. This has helped navigate sectarian divisions within the area primarily based round safety of its residents.”

Whereas this evaluation bodes effectively for India, Indian officers are much less optimistic. “The HTS is backed by Turkiye, which is near Pakistan. If the brand new regime includes of the HTS it could not take India’s aspect on India-Pakistan points,” an Indian intelligence official advised The Diplomat. Submit-Assad Syria could be anticipated to again Pakistan on the Kashmir dispute.

One other concern is that the continued instability in Syria and the rise of Islamist hardliners there'll give a fillip to world jihadist and Islamist militant teams. When the Taliban captured energy in Afghanistan in August 2021, it was celebrated by Islamist militants worldwide. If the Taliban may pressure the U.S. out of Afghanistan, ousting smaller powers like India from Kashmir wouldn't be tough, was their argument.

The HTS’ victory over the Russia and Iran-backed Assad may equally increase Islamist militants not simply within the fast area however past — in South Asia, for instance. Already Jammu and Kashmir is witnessing a surge in militancy. The autumn of Assad may present a fillip to anti-India militant teams working there, the Indian intelligence official warned. Moreover, it may result in a recent movement of Indian Muslim recruits to Syria’s battlefields.

India may even be apprehensive concerning the destiny of its investments in Syria, particularly these within the oil sector. ONGC Videsh Restricted (OVL) has a 60 p.c collaborating curiosity in Exploration Block-24 close to Deir-ez-Zour in northern Syria. Then ONGC India and CNPC China collectively acquired the 37 p.c stake of PetroCanada within the Syrian Al Furat Petroleum Firm. Whereas India has been dealing with difficulties in finishing up its operations there on account of U.S. and EU imposed sanctions on Syria, the delicate scenario in post-Assad Syria will additional delay the operationalization of those investments.

The autumn of Assad has additionally dramatically altered regional geopolitical dynamics. His ouster has severely undermined the affect and stature of Russia and Iran within the area, and Moscow and Teheran are key Indian strategic companions. It may influence India’s position within the strife-torn area.