The united West is dead

[ad_1] Mark Leonard is the director and co-founder of the European Council on Overseas Relations (ECFR) and creator of “Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the Guidelines Fail” (Polity Press April 2026).

The worldwide liberal order is ending. The truth is, it might already be lifeless. White Home Deputy Chief of Workers Stephen Miller stated as a lot final week as he gloated over the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the seize of dictator Nicolás Maduro: “We stay in a world … that's ruled by power, that's ruled by power, that's ruled by energy … These are the iron legal guidelines of the world.”

However America’s forty seventh president is equally liable for one other loss of life — that of the united West.

And whereas Europe’s leaders have fallen over themselves to sugarcoat U.S. President Donald Trump’s unlawful navy operation in Venezuela and ignore his brazen calls for on Greenland, Europeans themselves have already realized Washington is extra foe than buddy.

This is among the key findings of a ballot carried out in November 2025 by my colleagues on the European Council on Overseas Relations and Oxford College’s Europe in a Altering World analysis mission, based mostly on interviews with 26,000 people in 21 nations. Just one in six respondents thought of the U.S. to be an ally, whereas a sobering one in 5 seen it as a rival or adversary. In Germany, France and Spain that quantity approaches 30 p.c, and in Switzerland — which Trump singled out for greater tariffs — it’s as excessive as 39 p.c.

This decline in assist for the U.S. has been precipitous throughout the continent. However as energy shifts across the globe, perceptions of Europe have additionally began to alter.

With Trump pursuing an America First international coverage, which regularly leaves Europe out within the chilly, different nations at the moment are viewing the EU as a sovereign geopolitical actor in its personal proper. This shift has been most dramatic in Russia, the place voters have grown much less hostile towards the U.S. Two years in the past, 64 p.c of Russians seen the U.S. as an adversary, whereas immediately that quantity sits at 37 p.c. As a substitute, they've turned their ire towards Europe, which 72 p.c now take into account both an advisory or a rival — up from 69 p.c a 12 months in the past.

In the meantime, Washington’s coverage shift towards Russia has additionally meant a shift in its Ukraine coverage. And because of this, Ukrainians, who as soon as noticed the U.S. as their biggest ally, at the moment are seeking to Europe for cover. They’re distinguishing between U.S. and European coverage, and practically two-thirds anticipate their nation’s relations with the EU to get stronger, whereas solely one-third say the identical concerning the U.S.

Even past Europe, nonetheless, the only largest long-term influence of Trump’s first 12 months in workplace is how he has pushed individuals away from the U.S. and nearer to China, with Beijing’s affect anticipated to develop throughout the board. From South Africa and Brazil to Turkey, majorities anticipate their nation’s relationship with China to deepen over the following 5 years. And in these nations, extra respondents see Beijing as an ally than Washington.

Extra particularly, in South Africa and India — two nations which have discovered themselves in Trump’s crosshairs lately — the change from a 12 months in the past is outstanding. On the finish of 2024, a whopping 84 p.c of Indians thought of Trump’s victory to be a great factor for his or her nation; now solely 53 p.c do.

After all, this ballot was carried out earlier than Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and earlier than his remarks about taking on Greenland. However with even the closest of allies now apprehensive about falling sufferer to a predatory U.S., these tendencies — of nations pulling away from the U.S. and towards China, and a Europe remoted from its transatlantic associate — are more likely to speed up.

<img width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14/GettyImages-2253858000-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-7764768" srcset="https://www.politico.eu/cdn-cgi/image/width=1024,quality=80,onerror=redirect,format=auto/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14/GettyImages-2253858000.jpg 1024w, https://www.politico.eu/cdn-cgi/image/width=300,quality=80,onerror=redirect,format=auto/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14/GettyImages-2253858000.jpg 300w" /> In the meantime, Washington’s coverage shift towards Russia has additionally meant a shift in its Ukraine coverage. And because of this, Ukrainians, who as soon as noticed the U.S. as their biggest ally, at the moment are seeking to Europe for cover. | Joe Raedle/Getty Pictures

All of the whereas, confronted with Trumpian aggression however constrained by their very own lack of company, European leaders are caught coping with an Atlantic-sized chasm between their personal reactions and what they permit themselves to say in public.

The excellent news from our ballot is that regardless of the reticence of their leaders, Europeans are each conscious of the state of the world and in favor of loads of what must be finished to enhance the continent’s place. As we've seen, they harbor no illusions concerning the U.S. underneath Trump. They understand they’re residing in an more and more harmful, multipolar world. And majorities assist boosting protection spending, reintroducing obligatory conscription, and even entertaining the prospect of a European nuclear deterrent.

The foundations-based order is giving technique to a world of spheres of affect, the place may makes proper and the West is cut up from inside. In such a world, you might be both a pole with your personal sphere of affect or a bystander in another person’s. European leaders ought to heed their voters and make sure the continent belongs within the first class — not the second.