The Fall of Bashar al-Assad May Not Be Good News for the Taliban

[ad_1] The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a turning level not just for Syria but in addition for Islamist actions worldwide. For the Taliban, this second is bittersweet. Whereas the collapse of a rival regime provides a symbolic victory, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) poses a direct ideological and strategic problem. HTS’s guarantees of inclusivity, tolerance of minorities, and democratic reform spotlight the Taliban’s regressive insurance policies and authoritarianism. Furthermore, the Syrian rebels’ victory might encourage opposition actions inside Afghanistan and embolden reasonable Taliban officers to push again in opposition to their chief’s hardline rule.

The stunning advances of opposition forces within the Syrian civil conflict and the following collapse of the Assad regime have despatched shockwaves throughout the globe. The Arab world has watched Syrian developments with combined feelings – hope for change but in addition considerations over instability. The Taliban, nonetheless, greeted the occasion with overt enthusiasm.

A number of Taliban-affiliated social media accounts celebrated the latest successes of the rebels in Syria. On December 8, the Taliban prolonged congratulations to the HTS-led forces, the insurgent teams that toppled the Assad authorities, expressing hope that the facility transition in Syria would result in the institution of a authorities aligned with “the aspirations of the individuals and Islamic values.” In Kabul and different Afghan provinces, the Taliban marked the victory with celebrations, distributing sweets and rallies .

But, behind the jubilation lies an uncomfortable actuality: the autumn of Assad could not bode nicely for the Taliban in the long run.

HTS and the Taliban: Diverging Paths

Whereas the Syrian insurgent group’s mix of nationalism and Islamism echoes the ideology of Afghanistan’s Taliban and Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Taliban, the Syrian rebels could disappoint their Afghan counterparts. HTS’s insurance policies and rhetoric, not less than for now, point out a markedly completely different method to governance. Syrian opposition leaders and HTS have pledged to work towards an inclusive authorities that acknowledges Syria’s ethnic and non secular variety.

Against this, the Taliban have systematically excluded ladies and minorities from public life, failing to kind an inclusive administration. Non secular minorities, equivalent to Shiites, face widespread discrimination below Taliban rule, together with restrictions on their non secular practices.

HTS and its allies have signaled plans for a transitional 18-month authorities , the adoption of a brand new structure, and elections to observe. Whereas these guarantees stay to be fulfilled, they starkly distinction with the Taliban’s unyielding authoritarianism , characterised by its draconian insurance policies in opposition to ladies and minorities. The Taliban’s determination to ban ladies from training fully – together with a latest ban on coaching within the well being sector – has drawn worldwide condemnation . Norway, as soon as comparatively open to partaking with the Taliban , not too long ago expressed disappointment over the group’s restrictions on ladies’s training and rescinded plans to obtain a Taliban envoy.

This mounting international isolation is a rising concern for reasonable voices inside the Taliban. Figures like Sirajuddin Haqqani, Taliban’s inside minister, and Abbas Stanikzai, deputy overseas minister, each influential Taliban officers, have publicly criticized the group’s chief, Hibatullah Akhundzada, for his more and more restrictive insurance policies. Haqqani, particularly, has warned that such insurance policies threat alienating the Afghan inhabitants and accelerating the Taliban’s demise.

The latest potential plans to limit the actions of all overseas NGOs in Afghanistan, coupled with a ban on ladies’s training, deepened the nation’s isolation and amplified inner dissent , particularly inside the Taliban ranks . Towards this backdrop, the Syrian rebels’ obvious willingness to embrace inclusive governance could embolden reasonable Taliban officers to extra actively oppose Akhundzada’s hardline stance.

A Supply of Inspiration for Opposition Forces

The collapse of the Assad regime may also have surprising ripple results in Afghanistan. Whereas the Taliban celebrated the Syrian rebels’ victory, their jubilation might show short-lived. The success of HTS in overthrowing a longstanding autocrat would possibly embolden opposition forces in Afghanistan , in addition to reasonable members of the Taliban, who're rising more and more disillusioned with Akhundzada’s one-man rule.

Former Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh, a outstanding voice of resistance, likened the scenes of jubilation in Damascus to the interval in 2001 when U.S.-backed forces toppled the Taliban. For the Taliban, the autumn of Assad would possibly inadvertently function a cautionary story in regards to the fragility of autocratic regimes.

The Syrian rebels’ victory provides a glimmer of hope to these opposing the Taliban. If HTS follows by on its guarantees of democratic rule and inclusivity, it might present a counter-narrative to the Taliban’s inflexible, exclusionary regime. For Afghans who yearn for change, HTS’s ascent could function an inspiring mannequin regardless of the challenges Syria will undoubtedly face in its transition.

The Taliban’s Dwindling Legitimacy

The Taliban’s authoritarian rule, already criticized even by some Islamist allies, now faces a further problem: competitors from a rival Islamist governance mannequin. HTS’s pragmatic rhetoric, which incorporates partaking with minorities and planning democratic reforms, contrasts sharply with the Taliban’s rising isolation and rigidity.

Regardless of unofficial ties with a handful of nations, the Taliban authorities stays unrecognized by any state. Insurance policies equivalent to banning ladies’s training and proscribing overseas NGOs have deepened Afghanistan’s humanitarian disaster and additional eroded the Taliban’s legitimacy.

Pragmatic Taliban leaders concern that Akhundzada’s hardline method is unsustainable. The developments in Syria, notably HTS’s obvious shift towards inclusivity, might widen present rifts inside the Taliban’s management. A profitable Syrian transition – even when fraught with challenges – would underscore the Taliban’s failures and rigidity.

As celebrations erupt in Syria, the Taliban’s public shows of pleasure masks a deeper unease. Assad’s fall is a stark reminder that no authoritarian regime is invincible. For the Taliban, the success of the Syrian rebels raises troubling questions on their very own future. HTS’s rise as a possible mannequin of Islamist governance might undermine the Taliban’s declare to management within the Islamic world, additional isolating them on the worldwide stage.

Whereas the Taliban handed out sweets in Kabul, they might quickly notice that Assad’s fall isn't the unmitigated victory that they had hoped for. As an alternative, it's a warning of the challenges forward – each from inside and past Afghanistan’s borders.