Housing inventory actually fell last week. What is going on?

[ad_1] Within the two weeks main as much as the July 4th vacation week, our weekly Housing Market Tracker confirmed that housing knowledge was stabilizing as mortgage charges approached their lowest ranges of the yr. Nevertheless, with July 4th falling on a Friday, I famous that the next two weeks would doubtless disrupt our weekly knowledge, and that turned out to be the case. That mentioned, I anticipate issues to return to regular subsequent week. Let’s check out the present housing knowledge.

Weekly housing stock knowledge

Probably the most promising facet of the housing market in 2025 is the rise in stock and the slowing progress price of dwelling costs nationally. After a number of years following the COVID-19 pandemic, this yr appears to mirror a virtually good stability. Though stock decreased final week, this drop was primarily as a result of impression of the 2 weeks across the vacation. The earlier week, nevertheless, confirmed stronger progress than the standard pattern. We will anticipate a return to normalcy beginning subsequent week.

Weekly stock change (July 4-July 11): Stock fell from 853,180 to 846,833

The identical week final yr (July 5-July 12): Stock rose from 645,713 to 652,518

New listings knowledge

The brand new listings knowledge appears to have reached its peak for 2025. Whereas we met my minimal goal of 80,000 new listings per week this yr in the course of the seasonal peak interval, I had hoped to see no less than just a few weeks of exercise ranging between 80,000 and 100,000. However, attaining the goal remains to be a victory for 2025. This knowledge line skilled a big dip final week, however I anticipate it to rebound subsequent week.

To present you some perspective, in the course of the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings have been hovering between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for a few years. Right here’s final week’s new listings knowledge over the previous two years:

2025: 60,726

2024: 56,622

Value-cut proportion

In a typical yr, roughly one-third of properties expertise value reductions, highlighting the dynamic nature of the housing market. Owners modify their sale costs as stock ranges rise and mortgage charges keep elevated. We noticed some stabilization on this knowledge line earlier than the July 4th vacation week, and we will see what occurs now that the two-week vacation knowledge has been lifted.

For my 2025 value forecast, I anticipated a modest enhance in dwelling costs of roughly 1.77%. This means that 2025 will doubtless see unfavourable actual dwelling costs once more. In 2024, my forecast of a 2.33% enhance proved inaccurate, primarily as a result of charges fell to round 6% and demand improved within the second half of the yr. Because of this, dwelling costs elevated by 4% in 2024.

The rise in value reductions this yr in comparison with final yr reinforces my cautious progress forecast for 2025. The value-cut proportion seems to be completely wholesome to me in a rising stock surroundings the place affordability is a matter — that is one thing I really like dearly in regards to the 2025 housing market.

Listed here are the chances of properties that noticed value reductions final week within the earlier two years:

Buy utility knowledge

The acquisition utility knowledge confirmed 25% year-over-year progress final week, with 9% week-to-week progress. I wrote a complete article on what I imagine is occurring right here, and this latest HousingWire Day by day podcast explains why we've got had the perfect year-over-year progress in years in 2025.

Right here is the weekly knowledge for 2025:

12 optimistic readings

9 unfavourable readings

5 flat prints

Right here is the year-over-year knowledge for the final 23 weeks

23 straight weeks of optimistic year-over-year knowledge

10 straight weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress

Weekly pending gross sales

Our weekly pending dwelling gross sales present a week-to-week glimpse into the info; nevertheless, this knowledge line may also be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. Nonetheless, final week’s knowledge confirmed year-over-year progress in our weekly pending gross sales, however the week-to-week knowledge, like different weekly knowledge traces, took the normal July 4th vacation dive. We should always get again to a extra regular pattern subsequent week.

Weekly pending gross sales for final week within the earlier two years:

2025: 61,143

2024: 58,321

Complete pending gross sales

The most recent weekly knowledge on whole pending gross sales from Altos presents precious insights into present developments in housing demand. Sometimes, mortgage charges round 6% are needed for important progress within the housing market. Nevertheless, even with elevated charges, we're nonetheless experiencing year-over-year progress.

Weekly pending gross sales for the final week over the earlier yr:

2025: 387,590

2024: 381,517

10-year yield and mortgage price

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:

Mortgage charges between 5.75% and seven.25%

The ten-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

We didn’t have a number of financial knowledge final week. Nonetheless, we had some loopy headlines — from Fed President Waller speaking about needing to chop charges to get to impartial sooner to President Trump placing extra new tariffs on international locations earlier than the Aug. 1 deadline — so bond yields did have some motion. We had a mini rollercoaster with the 10-year yield: it began at 4.32%, obtained as much as 4.43%, dropped again all the way down to 4.32% after which ended the week up at 4.41%. Mortgage charges didn’t budge a lot in any respect, beginning the week at 6.79% and ending the week at 6.82%.Once more, mortgage spreads appearing higher this yr limits the injury to the upside when the 10-year yield rises.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 however have improved since their peak in 2023. We skilled some drama with the spreads in April because the markets handled the tariffs, however issues have improved because the market has calmed down. Over the weekend and final week Trump introduced new tariff percentages on international locations forward of the Aug. 1 deadline, so we will see how the inventory market reacts to that. The spreads calming down just lately has helped carry stability to the mortgage market.

If the spreads have been as unhealthy as they have been on the peak of 2023, mortgage charges would presently be 0.76% greater. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their regular vary, mortgage charges can be 0.74%-0.54% decrease than immediately’s stage. Traditionally, mortgage spreads have usually ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.

The week forward: Inflation week, tariff headlines, retail gross sales and housing begins

We now have a ton of information arising this week: it’s inflation week, and one of many Fed presidents mentioned final week that the Fed believes that they'll see the tariffs inflation begin to hit within the June stories and proceed for the remainder of the yr. And who is aware of what tariff headlines we’ll get? We even have retail gross sales to trace shopper exercise and the all-important jobless claims knowledge, which has been falling over the previous couple of weeks.

We even have a pair of housing knowledge traces which are at all times key to the financial cycle: builders’ confidence knowledge and housing begins. We may have a large number of financial stories to work with this week.