Why Calif. gas prices are set to rocket — and it’s not to do with Iran

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California drivers are going through yet one more new motive why fuel costs are on the rise this spring — and it has nothing to do with the US-Israeli airstrikes in Iran or oil manufacturing cuts.

Somewhat, the wrongdoer is the swap to summer-blend gasoline, which historically sends costs climbing within the Golden State forward of the hotter months.

A plume of smoke rises after an explosion on March 2, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. Getty Photos

“Fuel costs are climbing as refineries endure upkeep forward of the swap to summer-blend gasoline,” mentioned Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho. “The unknown is how geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran will proceed to impression crude oil costs. That would imply volatility on the pumps, along with the conventional seasonal spring will increase.”

Refineries in California are already making the transition, with the state being the primary within the nation to change to this dearer, environmentally pleasant gasoline.

Summer time-blend gasoline historically sends costs climbing within the Golden State forward of the summer season months. Getty Photos

The changeover usually results in increased costs on the pump resulting from a mix of things, together with refinery upkeep, decreased output, and the upper price of manufacturing summer-blend gasoline, based on the American Vehicle Affiliation, As well as, whereas crude oil costs have been comparatively steady, the swap to summer-blend has put extra strain on West Coast costs.

Summer time-blend gasoline is formulated with a decrease Reid Vapor Stress (RVP) to scale back evaporation throughout hotter temperatures, a key requirement to fight air air pollution in California’s hotter months, the press launch from AAA says.

The summer-blend gasoline swap, compounded by rising tensions from the airstrikes in Iran, has already pushed fuel costs increased. Anadolu by way of Getty Photos

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Whereas it’s good for the surroundings, it additionally makes the gasoline dearer to supply.

For instance, whereas fuel costs on the East Coast are comparatively steady for now, California drivers are already feeling the pinch. California has the best fuel costs within the nation, with a mean of $4.59 per gallon as of mid-February 2026 — properly above the nationwide common of $2.92 per gallon, based on AAA.

The swap to summer-blend gasoline isn’t distinctive to California, but it surely does have an effect on the state extra instantly.

Whereas different states start making the swap nearer to Could 1, California refineries begin the method a lot earlier, with some areas requiring summer-blend gasoline as quickly as April 1.

California’s strict environmental rules and its distinctive market dynamics imply the state’s drivers are the primary to really feel the ache of the changeover.

The typical worth of normal fuel in California has risen by 38 cents from January to February 2026. Getty Photos

The typical worth of normal fuel in California has risen by 38 cents from January to February 2026.

Along with the seasonal transition, crude oil costs have seen fluctuations, though they’re not as unstable as they had been final yr. Crude oil costs briefly peaked at $65 per barrel in January 2026, and whereas they’ve since dipped to $62, they continue to be increased than the everyday winter worth ranges of $55 to $60.

The summer-blend gasoline swap, compounded by rising tensions from the battle in Iran and the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz, has already pushed fuel costs increased and will result in much more volatility on the pump.

For those who’re in California, brace for increased fuel costs within the coming months.

The swap to summer-blend gasoline, mixed with refinery slowdowns, will doubtless maintain costs elevated all through the spring and summer season. Fuel costs, already averaging $4.59 per gallon, might climb additional, and with geopolitical tensions doubtlessly impacting crude oil costs, volatility is anticipated.

Don’t anticipate aid till the autumn, when winter-blend gasoline returns — doubtless in time for the vacations.

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