Five Factors That Catapulted Arakan Army to Unprecedented Success Against the Myanmar Military

[ad_1] Of all of the ethnic armed organizations working in Myanmar, the Arakan Military has managed to convey below its management the most important expanse of territory in lower than 20 years since its formation. It has liberated as many as 13 townships from the army junta to date, protecting an unlimited swathe in Arakan, a area that features southern Chin State and Rakhine State, even because it seeks to wrest management over areas nonetheless below the management of the Myanmar army.

Fashioned in Kachin in 2009 by 26 functionaries, together with Commander-in-Chief Twan Mrat Naing, with the help of the Kachin Independence Military (KIA), the Arakan Military (AA) began partaking in armed battle with the army in northern Rakhine State in 2015. Combating was intermittent for 5 years thereafter.

<img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-279963" class="size-full wp-image-279963" src="https://manage.thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160748.jpg" alt="" width="462" height="561" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160748.jpg 462w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160748.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 462px) 100vw, 462px"/> Supply: Wikipedia

Then in November 2020, the AA entered into a casual ceasefire with the army. However hostilities resumed early in 2022. One other brittle ceasefire got here into impact in November of that yr. On November 13, 2023, the AA launched a full-scale offensive in opposition to the army which continues up to now.

So, what underlies the AA’s achievements? In an interview with The Diplomat, Twan Mrat Naing mentioned that along with studying from the failures of earlier generations of Arakan fighters to liberate Arakan from Burmese rule, the AA’s management, its organizational capability and alliances enabled it to construct a strong motion led by AA and its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA).

Based mostly on my observations and journey within the area, in addition to discussions and interviews with AA and ULA functionaries, 5 components appear to have contributed to the group’s success in opposition to the army.

“Management Has Been the Clinching Issue”

<img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-279964" class="wp-image-279964 size-large" src="https://manage.thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png" alt="" width="924" height="785" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 924w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 462w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium_large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 624w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 300w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 600w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 622w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 784w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 946w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/thediplomat_2024-12-27-160955.png 962w" sizes="(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px"/> Political Commissar Oo Hla Noticed at Mrauk U in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.Credit score: Rajeev Bhattacharyya

In an interview with The Diplomat on June 30, political commissar of Mrauk U and adjoining areas of Kyauktaw and the senior-most member of the ULA, Oo Hla Noticed, mentioned that whereas “AA’s success could be attributed to many causes, management is the clinching issue. That is obvious from the variations among the many management of earlier organizations in Arakan that had been shaped to liberate the area from Burmese rule. Apart from, “AA has made the motion inclusive by partaking all communities, which the sooner teams didn't. There isn't a discrimination on the idea of race or faith,” he mentioned, including that “this coverage stemmed from a transparent imaginative and prescient of nation constructing.”

AA and ULA functionaries defined to The Diplomat how the group expanded. A roadmap was firmed up even earlier than the coaching periods started in Kachin. From 2009, 4 batches of AA functionaries comprising round 400 fighters rolled out from Kachin in a span of two years. The following part of the plan concerned stationing the educated cadres with the KIA to achieve floor expertise, and within the cities of Yangon, Sittwe and Mandalay to construct a community.

In the meantime, AA started to determine scholar leaders and monks in Arakan to construct a community to draw recruits. From 2014, AA functionaries had been infiltrated and settled in assorted places of Rakhine State. This coincided with a convention of Arakanese events in Kyaukphyu the place the AA leaders made their first public look in uniforms.

AA’s recognition surged thereafter, making it simpler for it to construct roots among the many plenty. In 2015, the AA fought its first main battle with the army at Yanchaung the place it used guerrilla techniques to place the latter on the backfoot.

A colonel of AA who heads a regional command identified that the northern area of Arakan, together with Paletwa and the world round Myanmar, India and Bangladesh trijunction in southern Chin State, was the group’s focus throughout the preliminary part of constructing a assist base. “That area was chosen as a result of it was mandatory to manage the commerce routes to and from India and Bangladesh. Apart from, the army was weaker right here than within the south,” he mentioned. In 2015, the ULA was shaped to arrange an administrative equipment within the area, and coaching camps had been established a yr later.

These efforts ran concurrently with AA’s covert endeavor to move weapons to Arakan from completely different sources together with Shan State. In accordance with a 2024 report from the Centre for Arakan Research, “AA leaders despatched their troops group by group utilizing all obtainable channels from Kachin or Northern Shan state. Weapons and ammunition are additionally reported to maneuver by land and water challenges by way of Thailand, India, or Bangladesh.”

As battle with the army intensified, the AA management sensed the necessity for higher coordination and effectivity in executing operations. As many as 9 army regional instructions had been created headed by colonels and lieutenant colonels and supervised by a struggle workplace at a secret location, the place Twan Mrat Naing and his deputy Brigadier Basic Dr Nyo Twan Aung are assisted by a bunch of senior officers.

Alliances With Resistance Teams

<img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-279965" class="size-large wp-image-279965" src="https://manage.thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg" alt="" width="924" height="616" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 924w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 462w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium_large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 624w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 300w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 600w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 622w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 784w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 946w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 1244w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-xl-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161107.jpg 1568w" sizes="(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px"/> A battalion headquarters of the Myanmar army at Rathedaung in Rakhine State that was seized by the Arakan Military in March 2024.Credit score: Rajeev Bhattacharyya

The AA’s alliances with different resistance organizations throughout the nation have additionally facilitated its enlargement. At present, AA troops are deployed within the states of Kayin, Shan and Kachin and in Sagaing Area and Magway Area.

It was in 2015 that the AA joined its first main alliance, the Northern Alliance, comprising the Tang Nationwide Liberation Military (TNLA), Myanmar Nationwide Democratic Alliance Military (MNDAA) and KIA, to take part in operations in opposition to the army within the Kokang struggle in northern Shan State. It joined the United Wa State Military (UWSA)-led Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) in April 2017, and two years later, it joined the MNDAA and TNLA within the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which in October 2023, launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State, which is taken into account a turning level within the ongoing struggle in opposition to the army.

In accordance with Zevago, a senior ULA officer, the alliances helped AA “collect assets and assist, and study the preventing abilities and techniques from completely different teams.” The 2021 coup, he mentioned, “threw up new challenges compelling the AA to finetune methods and look out for extra alliances.”

The AA has declined to affiliate itself formally with the Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG), the government-in-exile shaped after the coup by ousted lawmakers and parliamentarians. When requested to spell out the character of the connection with the NUG, the AA commander-in-chief mentioned “We've got our personal imaginative and prescient, missions, and aims. Whereas we, the individuals of Arakan, are preventing for the liberation and development of Arakan, we hope the individuals of Myanmar obtain their aims as rapidly as potential.”

Its cautious ties with the NUG however, AA has supplied coaching and weapons to the Folks’s Protection Pressure (PDFs) shaped after the coup in Chin State, Magway Area, Sagaing Area and Ayeyarwady Area. Amongst these, essentially the most potent alliance appears to be with a conglomerate of six teams in Chin State known as the Chin Brotherhood Alliance (CBA). In a mixed operation final June, the CBA seized Matupi from the army. Management over the city and the adjoining areas is taken into account important by AA to take care of the availability strains of important commodities from the Indian border state of Mizoram.

“Arakan Military’s Benefit is the Giant Pool of Younger and Dedicated Cadres”

<img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-279966" class="size-large wp-image-279966" src="https://manage.thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png" alt="" width="924" height="540" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 924w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 462w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium_large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 624w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 300w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 600w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 622w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 784w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 946w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 1244w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161253.png 1378w" sizes="(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px"/> The writer interviewing captured Buthidaung police chief Aung Kyaw Kyaw (heart) at Buthidaung in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.Credit score: Rajeev Bhattacharyya

Aung Kyaw Kyaw, the police chief of Buthidaung, who was amongst 55 police personnel captured by AA from Odde village within the township on Might 18, shared his observations in regards to the causes for the AA’s profitable seize of the township.

“The AA has proved itself as a succesful group,” Aung Kyaw Kyaw advised me on June 23. “Its benefit is the massive pool of younger and dedicated cadres, who're prepared to combat and die for Arakan,” he mentioned, including that “that is one thing that the Myanmar army lacks because the troopers’ morale is low and they're demotivated.”

What are the opposite causes behind AA’s phenomenal success in opposition to the army?” I requested him.

“It's obvious that AA has the assist of the individuals. No technique could be efficient with out assist. The Myanmar army in alliance with Islamist terror outfits has been concentrating on civilians within the area and is perceived as an alien drive that has occupied Arakan. The army ought to keep away from concentrating on civilians in cities and villages,” Aung Kyaw Kyaw mentioned.

“What's your view in regards to the advances made by AA?” I requested. “Will the army be capable to defend this area in opposition to AA?”

“AA has already occupied 80 p.c of Arakan,” the police chief mentioned. “If the momentum is sustained, then it is going to be in a position to occupy the whole area.”

An awesome majority of AA functionaries I interacted with throughout seven townships had been within the age group of 20-30 years. Two colonels heading regional instructions whom I interviewed and one other officer posted within the abandoned city of Pauktaw seemed to be of their late thirties.

No one beneath the age of 16 is enrolled within the AA. The well being situation, academic {qualifications} and previous conduct of a recruit are scrutinized earlier than he's enrolled. Anyone older than 35 years is normally really useful for the ULA. Senior political activists with different events have additionally been allowed to affix the ULA.

Arakan’s inhabitants and social configuration present the AA and ULA a big reservoir of recruits. Rakhine State covers 36,778 sq kilometers with an estimated inhabitants of 3.22 million, as per information gathered by the federal government in 2011. Unemployment is rampant with virtually 78 p.c of the populace dwelling beneath the poverty line. It isn't shocking that AA has by no means confronted any shortage of cadres at any level, nor has it resorted to compelled recruitment like another resistance teams within the nation.

AA Has No Competitor in Arakan

<img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-279967" class="wp-image-279967 size-full" src="https://manage.thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg" alt="" width="6000" height="4000" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 6000w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 462w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium_large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 624w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 924w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 300w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 600w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 622w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 784w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 946w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 1244w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-xl-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161436.jpg 1568w" sizes="(max-width: 6000px) 100vw, 6000px"/> Functionaries of the Arakan Military touring for an task on the Kaladan river in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.Credit score: Rajeev Bhattacharyya

Rivalry amongst resistance teams which have even led to clashes is seen in different areas of Myanmar. Final yr at Kalay in Sagaing Area, I interviewed two functionaries of Chin Rifles who had disengaged from Kalay PDF owing to disagreement with the management. Two fighters had been killed and a number of other injured when rival outfits fought one another in an incident six months in the past in Chin State.

There isn't a scope for such battle in Arakan since there isn't a rival to AA among the many majority Rakhine Buddhist group to marketing campaign for self-determination of the area. CDF Paletwa is a small group lively in southern Chin State with a assist base principally among the many Chin group. A senior AA functionary at Paletwa advised me that the connection between the 2 teams was “cordial and cooperative.”

AA has strained ties with Rohingya terror outfits lively in Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships, most of whose functionaries fled to Bangladesh after the area was liberated from the army.

When AA was getting ready for enlargement, there have been rival armed teams in Arakan. The Arakan Nationwide Council, which was admitted as a member of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), an alliance of ethnic armed teams in 2011, is nearly non-existent right this moment.

The Arakan Liberation Occasion (ALP) and its armed wing the Arakan Liberation Military, which was accepted as a signatory to the Nationwide Ceasefire Settlement (NCA) of 2015 inked between the Myanmar authorities and eight teams, is cut up into two factions after the 2021 coup, with one faction opposing the coup and the opposite supporting the NCA. In accordance with a colonel of AA, the ALA includes not more than 100 members who're based mostly in Sittwe and actively collaborating with the junta.

It's evident that in contrast to earlier Arakan organizations, AA and ULA have been in a position to capitalize on the deep-rooted grievances among the many individuals to mobilize assist. Their declarations of the “Manner of Rakhita” and “Arakan Dream” in 2019, which encapsulated the objectives of self-determination and restoration of sovereignty of the Arakanese individuals, struck a chord with the Arakan plenty.

Benefit of Terrain

<img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-279968" class="size-large wp-image-279968" src="https://manage.thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png" alt="" width="924" height="490" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 924w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 462w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/medium_large/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 624w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 300w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 600w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 622w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-m-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 784w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 946w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-l-2/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 1244w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/sizes/td-story-xl-1/thediplomat_2024-12-27-161542.png 1568w" sizes="(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px"/> A speedboat of the Arakan Military on the Mayu river, which is pressed into service on necessary events.Credit score: Rajeev Bhattacharyya

Col. Twan Yai, regional Commander of Alpha 2 army area, underscored the essential position that the terrain in Arakan performed within the AA’s profitable campaigns in opposition to the army. In an interview at Rathedaung on June 28, he mentioned: “We had been born right here (Arakan) and in addition grew up right here. We've got experience and data of the native terrain. There aren't any Rakhine officers within the Myanmar army. All of the officers serving listed below are from exterior this area.”

Arakan’s panorama is completely different from Myanmar’s different border areas. It's a lengthy and slender stretch of principally flat terrain interspersed with rivers and streams, bordering Bangladesh on the west and India on the north. In such a topography, and with the deplorable situations of the highways, the rivers are the lifelines of the populace. I noticed large and medium-sized boats fitted with motors carrying merchandise and passengers all day alongside all of the rivers.

Earlier than the beginning of the struggle, AA put in place an environment friendly system for quick transportation of males and materials alongside the rivers. Along with speedboats which are stored in prepared mode, the AA additionally requisitions boats from the locals. In distinction, the army’s services for motion in rivers are dismal. It has to rely upon potholed highways. Consequently, its automobiles get caught on roads, making troopers weak to ambushes.

The AA additionally advantages from an environment friendly system of communication it has constructed throughout the area. Workplaces of the AA and ULA have entry to the web (via satellite tv for pc), satellite tv for pc telephones and walkie-talkies. Particular transmitters are used for relaying delicate info. In some locations, the place ULA functionaries face transmission challenges, as in Mrauk U and Minbya, for instance, “some ULA members have been completely stationed on mountain tops from the place messages are relayed to different locations,” deputy Political Commissar of the area Aung Zan Phru advised The Diplomat.

Given its skillful use of benefits and environment friendly strategizing, it's doubtless that AA’s footprints will develop within the coming months to incorporate extra territories within the northern areas of Rakhine State. Observers have predicted that its purpose of autonomy might be an actual chance. This can have a decisive affect not solely in Myanmar but additionally within the wider geopolitics of Southeast Asia.