Gavin Newsom’s gamble on Prop. 50 may be his most calculated yet

[ad_1] SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom stepped to the microphone on the state Democratic headquarters in mid-August with the conviction of a person sure he was on the best facet of historical past, bluntly saying California has an ethical obligation to thwart President Trump’s try and tilt the steadiness of Congress.

Over the subsequent 2½ months, Newsom grew to become the general public face of Proposition 50, a measure designed to assist Democrats win management of the U.S. Home of Representatives by briefly redrawing California’s congressional districts.

Newsom took that leap regardless of tepid help for a gerrymandering measure in early polls.

With Tuesday’s election, the destiny of Proposition 50 arrives at a pivotal second for Newsom, who final week acknowledged publicly that he’s weighing a 2028 presidential run. The end result will take a look at not solely his political instincts but in addition his capability to ship on a measure that has nationwide consideration fastened squarely on him.

From the outset, Newsom paired his conviction with warning.

“I’m conscious of the arduous work forward,” Newsom mentioned in August, shortly after lawmakers positioned Proposition 50 on the poll.

It was acquainted territory for a governor who has constructed a profession on high-stakes political bets. As San Francisco mayor, his choice to concern same-sex marriage licenses in 2004 made him a progressive icon. It additionally drew accusations he’d energized conservative turnout that yr within the presidential election that ended with George W. Bush profitable a second time period.

Because the state’s newly elected governor, he suspended the dying penalty in 2019 regardless of voters having twice rejected measures to take action, calling it a pricey and biased system that “fails to ship justice” — a transfer that drew fury from regulation enforcement teams and victims’ households. His choice to tackle Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a 2023 prime-time debate hosted by Sean Hannity on Fox Information was supposed to showcase his command of coverage and political agility, however as an alternative fell flat amid an onslaught of insults.

With Proposition 50, Newsom positioned himself on the middle of one other doubtlessly career-defining gamble earlier than realizing how it could land. Forward of Tuesday’s particular election, polling suggests he might have performed his playing cards proper. Six out of 10 possible voters help Proposition 50, based on a survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Research that was co-sponsored by The Instances.

“You realize, not everyone would have achieved it,” veteran Democratic strategist Gale Kaufman mentioned. “He noticed the chance and he took it.”

If accepted by voters, the poll measure would redraw California’s congressional maps to favor Democrats starting with the 2026 midterm elections in hopes of discounting Republican efforts to gerrymander extra seats for themselves. California launched the measure in response to Trump and his political staff leaning on Republican-led states to redraw their district traces to assist Republicans retain management of the Home.

The steadiness of energy within the intently divided Home will decide whether or not Trump can advance his agenda throughout his remaining two years in workplace — or face an emboldened Democratic majority that might transfer to problem, and even examine, his administration.

And whereas critics of the governor see a power-craving politician chasing headlines and affect, supporters say that is traditional Newsom: assured, risk-tolerant and prepared to face alone when he believes he’s proper. He confronted intense backlash from his political allies when he had conservative persona Charlie Kirk as his inaugural visitor on his podcast this yr, on which Newsom mentioned he believed it was “deeply unfair” for transgender athletes to compete in ladies’s sports activities. After Kirk was killed, Newsom often introduced up that interview as a degree of satisfaction, noting the backlash he acquired from his personal celebration over internet hosting a Trump ally.

In latest months Newsom struck a deal to stabilize struggling oil refineries, pushed cities to ban homeless encampments and proposed strolling again healthcare protection for undocumented immigrants — a sequence of strikes which have examined his standing with progressives. Supporters say the strikes present his pragmatic streak, whereas critics argue they replicate a shift to the middle forward of a potential presidential run.

“In so some ways, he isn't a cautious politician,” mentioned Jessica Levinson, a regulation professor at Loyola Legislation College. “His model is huge, daring selections.”

With Proposition 50, Newsom has forged the redistricting counterpunch as an ethical crucial, arguing that Democrat-led states should “battle hearth with hearth,” even when it means pausing a state unbiased redistricting course of largely thought-about the gold commonplace. The measure upends a system Californians overwhelmingly endorsed to maintain politics out of the map-drawing course of.

Levinson mentioned Newsom’s profile has been rising together with the polling numbers for Proposition 50 as he has booked nationwide tv exhibits like ‘The Late Present with Stephen Colbert” and appeared in an advert in favor of the poll measure with former President Obama, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and different distinguished Democrats that ran through the World Collection.

“We're speaking about Proposition 50 on a nationwide scale,” Levinson mentioned. “And it’s actually arduous to speak about Proposition 50 with out saying the phrases ‘Gov. Newsom of California spearheading the trouble to cross.’”

California Republicans have referred to as the trouble misguided, arguing that the retaliatory response creates a slippery slope that will erode the unbiased redistricting course of California voters have chosen twice on the poll field.

“If you battle hearth with hearth, the entire world burns,” mentioned California Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin), whose district is amongst those who can be overhauled underneath Proposition 50. “Newsom is making an attempt to assert that Texas did a foul gerrymandering, however what California is doing is an efficient gerrymander as a result of by some means it’s canceling it out … I simply suppose gerrymandering is incorrect. It’s incorrect in Texas and it’s incorrect in California.”

Kiley mentioned Newsom by no means has been one to draw back from nationwide consideration “and for pursing explicitly partisan targets.”

“He’s definitely used this as a chance to do each of these issues,” Kiley mentioned.

Out of the gate, the redistricting plan had lackluster help. Then got here the flood of adverts by proponents peppered with speaking factors about Trump rigging the election.

Supporters of Proposition 50 took in additional than 4 instances the quantity that opponents raised in latest weeks, based on marketing campaign finance studies filed with the state by the three major committees campaigning in regards to the measure. Supporters of Proposition 50 raised a lot cash that Newsom instructed them “you possibly can cease donating.”

Political analysts mentioned the redistricting battle has given Newsom what each formidable politician craves: a story. It’s allowed him to forged himself as a defender of democracy whereas reenergizing donors. That message sharpened when Trump administration officers mentioned they’d monitor polling websites in a number of California counties on the state GOP’s request, prompting Newsom to accuse the Trump administration of “voter intimidation.”

Republican strategist Rob Stutzman mentioned the marketing campaign gave Newsom one thing he’d struggled to search out: “an genuine confrontation” with Trump that resonates past California.

“And I feel it’s labored effectively for him nationally,” Stutzman mentioned. “I feel it’s been nice for him in some methods, no matter what occurs, but when it does lose, it’ll harm the model that he can win and there will likely be numerous disgruntled donors.”

Whereas Newsom has framed the measure pretty much as good for the nation, Stutzman mentioned it’s clear that Proposition 50 has been significantly good for the governor.

“He’s used it for his personal functions very, very successfully,” Stutzman mentioned. “If he turns into the [presidential] nominee, you may look again and say this was an necessary a part of him getting there.”

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