Who will win the NL Central, MLB's most competitive division?

[ad_1] Halfway by means of the 2025 MLB season, the NL Central has emerged as probably the most aggressive in baseball. 5 video games separated the highest 4 groups getting into Saturday.

To place that in perspective, after Friday's video games, the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers every led their respective divisions by at the least 6.5 video games.

With the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds having moved previous the 81-game mark, let's check out the division contenders' circumstances to tug away with the NL Central within the season's second half.

1. Chicago Cubs (49-34) Case for: Chicago has one of many majors' high offenses, because it confirmed in Saturday's 12-3 win over the Astros. Per Baseball Reference, the Cubs are No. 1 in non-pitcher wins above substitute (WAR). Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the NL's breakout star, and offseason commerce acquisition Kyle Tucker has been nearly as good as marketed, main the group with a .910 OPS.

The Cubs even have MLB's finest bullpen, getting into Saturday first in bullpen earned run common (ERA) at 2.53.

Case in opposition to: Chicago has a top-heavy 40-man roster and should keep its well being to stay atop the division. The Cubs even have the worst beginning rotation of the contending NL Central groups. Since Might 1, Cubs starters have a 4.75 ERA, the fifth-highest within the majors. (h/t FanGraphs)

2. Milwaukee Brewers (47-36) 2 GB Case for: The Brewers gained their fourth recreation in a row and eighth of their final 10 on Saturday, defeating the Colorado Rockies, 5-0. Milwaukee is the division's hottest group, and its pitching employees is a key cause for the success.

Towards the Rockies, starter Quinn Priester allowed one hit and struck out 11 because the Brewers pitched their eighth shutout of the season.

Milwaukee is among the league's finest small-ball groups, rating fourth in productive out charge (33.2 %) and posting the second-lowest double-play charge (6.9 %), solely trailing the Cubs (6.6 %).

Case in opposition to: It is a good factor Brewers batters can manufacture runs, as a result of they are not overwhelming opponents with their energy. Getting into Saturday, Milwaukee was No. 25 in house runs (76). Per Baseball Savant, it ranked within the backside one % in group barrel charge (6.1 %) and common exit velocity (88.2 mph).

3. St. Louis Cardinals (46-38) 3.5 GB Case for: After falling a season-high 5 video games under .500 on Might 2, St. Louis is 31-19, the NL Central's finest file. (h/t FanGraphs)

The Playing cards haven't got a dominant beginning pitching rotation, however it's among the many league's most reliable. 5 pitchers have at the least 15 begins. Sonny Grey, Matthew Liberatore and Miles Mikolas have nice command, hardly ever issuing walks, whereas Steven Matz provides the Cardinals a helpful sixth possibility.

St. Louis is ninth in runs scored per recreation (4.66), but it surely really shines within the subject. The Cardinals have a .990 fielding share, high within the NL and second in MLB, trailing the Texas Rangers (.991).

Case in opposition to: If St. Louis claims the division, it probably should beat the Cubs and Brewers persistently, one thing it hasn't completed in 2025. Of their first 11 video games in opposition to the NL Central's high two groups, the Cardinals are 5-6 and have been outscored 51-38.

4. Cincinnati Reds (43-40) 6 GB Case for: Since June 1, the Reds are 14-9, their finest calendar month this season. Cincinnati's beginning pitching rotation is among the many league's finest, rating No. 2 in WAR (4.7) behind the Philadelphia Phillies (8.8).

Case in opposition to: The Reds have gone 7-13 in opposition to their NL Central competitors, being outscored 74-102. They rank within the backside 5 in WAR at first, second and third base. Elly De La Cruz, the group's finest infielder, is among the majors' worst shortstops, committing a league-high 12 errors in 80 video games.