How Armenian influence shapes France’s South Caucasus policy - Jean-Michel Brun with Baku Network (PHOTO/VIDEO)

[ad_1] BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 4. In a current episode of Actual World Order, a political present by the Baku Community suppose tank, host Elnur Enveroglu sat down for a blunt and wide-ranging discuss with Jean-Michel Brun, Editor-in-Chief of La Gazette du Caucase, and Muslims in France.

The dialog supplied a uncommon inside have a look at what Brun sees as France’s misguided international coverage within the South Caucasus, which he referred to as “a sequence of shortsighted strikes wrapped in political showmanship and ideological confusion.”

Brun’s important level was fairly clear: France and Azerbaijan used to have robust ties — in power, the setting, transportation, agriculture — however issues fell aside after the Second Karabakh Warfare. He believes this breakdown didn’t need to occur and that it’s really hurting France greater than serving to it.

“France didn’t simply activate Azerbaijan out of nowhere,” Brun stated. “It’s a direct results of Macron letting short-term politics at dwelling and a tilt towards far-right concepts information his international coverage.”

In contrast to previous leaders like Charles de Gaulle or Jacques Chirac, Brun argues, Macron doesn’t appear to have a transparent long-term imaginative and prescient. As an alternative, he’s taken a extra opportunistic route, aligning himself with nationalist views that romanticize France’s colonial historical past and forged fashionable conflicts as clashes between civilizations.

This shift, Brun identified, has led to France overtly siding with Armenia — a transfer he says is closely influenced by the nation’s Armenian diaspora. Round 800,000 Armenians stay in France, primarily in cities like Paris, Marseille, and Lyon. “They’ve invested loads not simply in lobbying, however in shaping media and tutorial circles,” Brun stated. “That’s modified the general public story across the Armenia-Azerbaijan battle in an enormous approach.”

He believes this affect has been used to border the battle as a non secular one, casting Armenia as a Christian stronghold below menace — a story he referred to as “dishonest and harmful.”

In the meantime, France’s Muslim inhabitants — about 13 million — hasn’t had the identical form of impression. Brun says it’s not nearly numbers, however about how organized and current a neighborhood is in politics and media. “The Armenian diaspora has made itself heard. That issues.”

Brun stated this political shift is already backfiring. French firms are lacking out on huge alternatives in Azerbaijan’s post-war rebuilding, particularly in cities like Agdam, Shusha, and Fuzuli. Whereas companies from the UK and Italy are concerned in development and infrastructure, French giants like Bouygues and Vinci have been overlooked.

“Enterprise leaders in France are pissed off,” Brun stated. “There’s cash being poured into these tasks, however France isn’t a part of it — and there’s no good purpose for that.”

He additionally pointed to how France has dealt with current tensions with Azerbaijan. Two incidents involving French nationals — one accused of spying, the opposite of vandalism — triggered a powerful response from Paris, which leaned closely on human rights discuss. However Brun says the federal government ignored the provocative conduct of its personal politicians and pro-Armenian activists. “This isn’t considerate diplomacy,” he stated. “It’s simply symbolic politics getting within the approach of actual technique.”

Nonetheless, Brun thinks Macron may change course if the geopolitical winds shift. With France dropping floor in Africa and the Mediterranean, Macron may look to Azerbaijan to regain some affect. “There’s rising consciousness in Paris that Armenia isn’t a robust companion,” Brun stated. “Its financial system is weak, and it doesn’t carry a lot strategic weight. Azerbaijan, then again, is turning into a serious power participant and a drive for regional stability. That’s the form of companion France ought to be in search of.”

Brun additionally talked about alternatives in areas like schooling, farming, infrastructure, and tradition. Even with all of the political noise, he stated, French tradition continues to be revered in Azerbaijan — a soft-power asset France hasn’t actually used. “There’s nonetheless an opportunity to make things better,” he stated. “However that likelihood received’t final endlessly. France has to decide on: preserve enjoying political video games at dwelling or get again to severe international coverage.”

As France tries to rethink its function on the world stage amid power challenges and a extra aggressive international panorama, what it does within the South Caucasus may find yourself being an enormous take a look at. And the message from Baku is evident: symbolism received’t get you far — actual partnerships will.